The WGA Writers Strike is Exactly What Netflix Wants

Netflix and Co. play a little 4D Chess, and we all suffer. A hot take from a random person who works in the industry.

(Michael M. Santiago / Getty Images)

*UPDATE. This post is originally from the beginning of the WGA strike, before SAG/AFTRA jumped in. I still hold my opinions now a year later.

My opinion is just like anyone else’s. An opinion.

I’m a local 600 DP who works in commercials and documentaries so the writer’s strike doesn’t affect me much. If anything, I will benefit in some weird way from it. If the strike continues, and if history is any indication, there will be an increase in documentary production. And that might lead to more work for me.

As I’ve seen over the past two years, there’s been an influx and abundance of production work. So much work that the local 600 workers were tired and overworked and wanted to strike.

But that strike was averted because they were given a decent deal from the studios and streamers.

This time, writers are getting a terrible deal. I completely empathize with them. They can’t make a living like they used to. Mini writer’s rooms. Less residuals. They have been turned into gig workers. And so they strike, bravely. Strikes are always, and should always be, a last resort. Because one stops getting paid. That’s not an easy decision for a group of people to make.

But the more I read, the more my little noggin starts thinking about it all. I know that it’s been an arms race between streamers to have content the past three years or so.

UK-based research firm Ampere Analysis forecasts that global streamers will invest up to US$26.5 billion in original programming this year, representing a 14% increase over 2022, when they spent US$23.2 billion.

Now with the strike, and most likely a DGA and or SGA strike, there will be no union work across the board. No one will have new union-made content as we know it. No Ted Lasso. No SNL. No Last of Us.

All major streamers will take a break for their record-breaking spending on entertainment. This arms race is at a temporary truce.

So what do they do next? Maybe adopt more foreign programming? South Korean entertainment seems to be a new genre that’s doing well. More true-crime documentary? Maybe more smaller narrative productions that still entertaining like High Maintenance and the How-To Show with John Wilson? Will people go for shows with lower production values since there’s nothing else being made? Maybe?

But this truce does stop all the bleeding. They have time too before they have to start not providing high-budget content. They have a ton of stuff as it is. And now they have a lot less costs.

I don’t have to be a CEO to see the benefit of this all. Nor a genius stock investor. Less spending is just as good as making money right?

And it feels like this is exactly what is happening here via this Variety article.

The streaming wars “forced big media companies to pour money into a seemingly bottomless pit, but investors are no longer willing to overlook the lack of profit,” notes Bloomberg Intelligence senior media analyst Geetha Ranganathan. The strike could reduce the number of shows delivered to TV networks and streaming services, which “may ironically turn into a positive, as it lowers costs, helping big media’s financial results for 2023.”

And this…

According to industry analysts, the WGA strike — depending on its duration — could actually improve the bottom lines of subscription streamers. “The sorry news for writers is that, in declaring a strike, they may in fact be helping the streaming giants and their parent companies,” MoffettNathanson analyst Luke Landis wrote in a May 3 research note.

So right there in the open, all the big entertainment companies not just break even or feel pain, but they gain. While worker will lose more and more money. And for how long? How long can you make no money for before you need to stop?

If I took this new venture into substack more seriously, I would now attempt to interview some heads of the WGA strike, as well as the DGA and SAG to see what their thoughts are. I would also interview some union members who would tell me the experience of the earlier writer’s strike in 2007-08. But this is my first substack and I have other stuff to do today.

Can the WGA stop and find alternative ways to reach demands? Are there other options that are effective?

Could you start an informal coalition where all writers refuse to work unless conditions are met on individual shows?

Or you wait it out? How long before the big streamers start to hurt? That people start cancelling their streaming in droves due to lack of new content?

Eventually, after a year, will people really get upset? Or will they not notice, since there’s so much stuff on each streaming site? Could the streaming site provide old content and repackage so it’s featured on their sites and most people wouldn’t know it’s really old stuff? Or just keep, Suits and Seinfeld, shows that people love and watch.

The Last of Us, for instance, just came out, and everyone is satified for a year or so. Can the audience wait a year or two till the next season or will they cancel their MAX subscription before then? Do people have loyalty to streaming based on the knowledge of the new seasons? Or are most people just subscribed because they have forgotten about their accounts or share with their family? Maybe I should interview some customers. I have amazon prime and we use my mother-in-laws netflix but I don’t watch anything on it. I am a blu ray person. Maybe I should act more like a journalist.

But we do already have an example of people being patient. People waited for new content during covid for extra years. I was one of them. I waited patiently for the new season three of “Succession”. At first it hurt to wait, but then I forgot about it. I did other stuff. Too much existing content and many other things to do with ones life. Including for the young-ins, you have tic toc which I guess is good enough.

But then again, are people like me? Do they know a good show is still good 5 years later? Can they just discover another show in the meantime while they wait for new content to come? Is that what the streamers are banking? That while they cut streaming, not many will notice? I assume so. And I feel like they are right. Also because people really do forget about their subscriptions to things or don’t know how to cancel it.

So could a strike last over a year? Two years? How long can a strike last untill those who are striking need to stop or switch jobs? And let’s not forget it’s not just the writers on strike. It’s kind of now everyone. Not many shows are getting made right now. So this affects the lower paid union workers. The grips, electrics, camera assistants, the art department. How many people in the union can go over three months before having to go into savings?

It’s all a little scary. And I’m sure these are questions that are being faced, especially after the inital excitement of a strike and solidarity start to wane. This isn’t Europe - we have very meager public assistance available to people. And this isn’t covid - there are no pandemic relief funds. The unions have funds - but for how long? Living in NY, LA, Chicago, and Atlanta is not cheap - where a lot of people in filmmaking live.

And let’s not forget, like me, us film professionals can’t do many other things with our lives to make money. I literally can not think of another job I could get if I could never work a day again that would not be worth 1/4 the income.

Even though we have had past strikes, this is unprecedented territory. And the rich have more money than ever and, well, the striking workers are going against bigger fish than just Warner Bros and Sony studios. Amazon and Apple, amongst others, which is not exactly very pro-union. These are huge huge corporations.

What do you think? Help me solve this.